5 Investing Ideas as Commodities Tumble

5 Investing Ideas as Commodities Tumble

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A good time to look for value is when the markets are bouncing back from monthly lows but a sector is not participating in it. Such is the case for companies operating in the commodities market. The drop is not going unnoticed by analysts. Take Joy Global (JOY) as an example. The company was downgraded by Goldman Sachs. The investment firm turned negative on the company, citing weaker demand and lower equipment sales from shrinking mining equipment demand.

Is there an opportunity to invest in resource companies? Four stocks come to mind.

Japan and China lead resource stocks

From a macroeconomic level, gold prices are being hurt by Japan’s ongoing efforts to implement quantitative easing. Earlier this year, investors took a bullish position in the Nikkei index, while short selling the yen. The reversal of this position is now underway. Investors are all trying to unwind their long position in the Nikkei, while covering their short position in the Yen.

In China, slower growth is not helping commodities prices either. Raymond James recently downgraded Teck Resources (TCK). The firm expects lower growth in China and slower global growth to hurt coal prices, giving them limited room to rise.

BHP Billiton (BHP) is cutting its capital expenditure to $15 billion annually for the next few years. The previous rate was supposed to be $22 billion in 2013. In 2014, the firm had expected to spend $18 billion. The sharp reduction in capital expenditure (capex) was done because BHP expects slow growth in China in the years ahead.

Upside from Dr. Copper

The negative trend in shares of Freeport McMoRan (FCX) continued, even though the firm recently closed its acquisition of Plains Exploration. Insider buying could support a bullish case for the company. James Flores, the Vice Chairman, bought more than 1 million shares. The company is also paying a special dividend of $1 for shareholders of record as of June 14, 2013. In the short term, shares could dip when the company trades ex-dividend.

Energy sector

In the energy sector, investors might want to look at BP, Inc. (BP), whose share pay a dividend of over 5%. Shares continue to be held back as the company pays $8 billion to victims of the Gulf of Mexico spill.

BP allocated nearly $3 billion for an oilfield in Iraq. At least 300 oil wells will be drilled over the next 5 years.

Asset sales are continuing, to raise cash and to improve the balance sheet. The company recently sold its refinery in Carson, California to Tesoro.

1 Year Return

The companies mentioned have a forward P/E ranging from 8 to 13. Teck is down the most over the last year. Only BP managed to stay in positive territory.

Written by Chris Lau


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